🇮🇹 Italy
Onset: 2026-08-10 · First detected: 2026-07-20T12:01:16.842084+00:00 · Last observed: 2026-07-24T12:00:55.162674+00:00
Generated at: 2026-07-24T12:00:55.162674+00:00 · The radar runs every 6 hours; data may lag by up to 6 hours.
What happened, who is affected, what similar past episodes looked like and what to do — every number links to its source.
| magnitude | 1 |
Historical monthly context — not current conditionsAs of: 2026-07 · Disruption index: 27.41 · 1 months older than this event
Rule: announced strike(s) on the official MIT calendar with start date within [today, today+30d]; severity: severe = national general/multi-sector walkout, warning = national/regional/interregional, watch = local/territorial
Method: deterministic-rule
Independent live sources scanned for disruption-significant entries about this country. Only strict, disclosed rules count — routine entries are never counted.
Rule: count unplanned motorway roadway-closure events (event contains 'road' and 'closed', cause is not roadworks); congestion, planned-roadworks closures and service-area closures are routine and never counted
Rule: count EMSC earthquakes of magnitude >= 4.5 located in the event country (EU-27 rows only); weaker regional seismicity is routine and never counted
Rule: count France Diplomatie 'dernières minutes' alerts for the event country ONLY when the alert's classified phenomenon aligns with the event type (a flood alert does not corroborate a seismic event); the feed only lists active alerts
Rule: count Romanian MAE travel-alert items naming the event country ONLY when the item's classified phenomenon (from its free-text Romanian title) can corroborate the event type — a national rail-strike notice ('Grevă ... feroviar') corroborates a rail event, never a seismic event (EU-27 rows only; the feed only lists destinations with an active alert)
Rule: count the event country's Meteoalarm entry only when its max severity is Severe or Extreme with at least one active warning; Moderate/minor warning loads are routine
Sources scanned: auswaertiges-amt-api-de, autostrade-italia, emsc-seismic, france-diplomatie-travel, gdacs-live, mae-ro-travel, meteoalarm-eumetnet, minbuza-nl-travel, trenitalia-open-data-it, uk-fcdo-advisories, us-state-advisories, viaggia-sicuri-it
| r_nights | 0.04 |
| r_arrivals | -0.08 |
| best_lag_months | 6 |
| best_lag_r | -0.27 |
| baseline_deviation_pct | -40.46 |
| n_months | 136 |
| Episode | score | index | h0 | h1 | h2 | h3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🇫🇷 France · 2023-04 | 1.738 | 79 | 7.20 | 9.43 | -0.13 | -2.01 |
| 🇫🇷 France · 2018-05 | 1.637 | 79 | 15.03 | -0.64 | -0.61 | 1.63 |
| 🇩🇪 Germany · 2019-05 | 1.623 | 79 | -3.24 | 11.05 | 4.65 | 3.58 |
| median_h1 | 9.43 |
| median_h2 | -0.13 |
| median_h3 | 1.63 |
Monitor the situation in Italy and re-check this report before confirming new bookings.
based on: detection.observed
Proactively inform guests with upcoming stays in Italy about possible disruptions.
based on: detection.observed
Machine-readable JSON for this page:
/data/api/v1/events/ev-announced-strike-it-20260810-91681f.jsonAdd as an MCP server (from the repo root):
claude mcp add travel-trends -- .venv/bin/python -m etl.mcp_server