Travel Trends
ENROPL
WatchEnded

Natural disaster alert for Croatia

🇭🇷 Croatia

Onset: 2026-08-14 · First detected: 2026-08-15T00:00:58.216340+00:00 · Last observed: 2026-08-21T18:01:47.630511+00:00 · Ended: 2026-08-22T06:01:34.458945+00:00

Generated at: 2026-08-23T18:01:11.880422+00:00 · The radar runs every 6 hours; data may lag by up to 6 hours.

Plain-language brief

What happened, who is affected, what similar past episodes looked like and what to do — every number links to its source.

What happened

  • ObservedOn 2026-08-14, our automated monitoring flagged a disaster disruption in Croatia — rated watch — the lowest of our three alert levels.[MAE Romania Travel Alerts]
  • ObservedThe reading behind this alert: magnitude at 1 (the full technical detail is in the sections below).[MAE Romania Travel Alerts]

Who is affected

  • ObservedHotels, travel managers, OTAs and tour operators with guests in Croatia during the event window are the most directly affected, together with travellers holding bookings there.[MAE Romania Travel Alerts]

What similar past episodes looked like

  • ObservedWe are not attaching a historical impact estimate here: our analogues are national, month-long patterns, and this is a localised, point-in-time event in Croatia — a country-wide number would not describe it.[estimates.applicability_reason]

What to do now

  • RecommendationFollow the official sources linked in this report for Croatia and reassess bookings before making changes.[MAE Romania Travel Alerts]

Impact

magnitude1

Historical monthly context — not current conditionsAs of: 2026-08 · Disruption index: 24.51 · 0 months older than this event

How this was detected

Rule: advisory_promotion

Method: deterministic-rule

Thresholds

Observed

Sources

Corroborating evidence

Independent live sources scanned for disruption-significant entries about this country. Only strict, disclosed rules count — routine entries are never counted.

  • meteoalarm-eumetnet1 matching entriesSnapshot

    Rule: count the event country's Meteoalarm entry only when its max severity is Severe or Extreme with at least one active warning; Moderate/minor warning loads are routine

    • HR — 12 — Severe

Sources scanned: auswaertiges-amt-api-de, emsc-seismic, france-diplomatie-travel, gdacs-live, meteoalarm-eumetnet, minbuza-nl-travel, uk-fcdo-advisories, viaggia-sicuri-it

Estimates

Estimates are labeled model outputs derived from published historical artifacts — they are context, not forecasts.

Estimate unavailable — not enough historical data for this event type.

Estimate unavailable — not enough historical data for this event type.

For AI agents

Machine-readable JSON for this page:

/data/api/v1/events/ev-disaster-alert-hr-20260814-d80f1b.json

Add as an MCP server (from the repo root):

claude mcp add travel-trends -- .venv/bin/python -m etl.mcp_server

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