WarningActive

Natural disaster alert for Portugal

🇵🇹 Portugal

Onset: 2026-07-06 · First detected: 2026-07-06T14:02:21.900813+00:00 · Last observed: 2026-07-12T00:00:51.613701+00:00

Generated at: 2026-07-12T00:00:51.613701+00:00 · The radar runs every 6 hours; data may lag by up to 6 hours.

Plain-language brief

What happened, who is affected, what similar past episodes looked like and what to do — every number links to its source.

What happened

ObservedOn 2026-07-06, our automated monitoring flagged a disaster disruption in Portugal — rated warning — the middle of our three alert levels.[GDACS Live Alerts]
ObservedThe reading behind this alert: alert score at 2 (the full technical detail is in the sections below).[GDACS Live Alerts]
Observed2 independent government advisories (France (France Diplomatie), Italy (Viaggiare Sicuri)) currently flag Portugal — each advisory is quoted in this report with its issuing government named.[france-diplomatie-travel][viaggia-sicuri-it]

Who is affected

ObservedHotels, travel managers, OTAs and tour operators with guests in Portugal during the event window are the most directly affected, together with travellers holding bookings there.[GDACS Live Alerts]

What similar past episodes looked like

ObservedWe are not attaching a historical impact estimate here: our analogues are national, month-long patterns, and this is a localised, point-in-time event in Portugal — a country-wide number would not describe it.[estimates.applicability_reason]

What to do now

RecommendationFollow the official sources linked in this report for Portugal and reassess bookings before making changes.[GDACS Live Alerts]

Impact

event_id	1029260
event_type	WF
alert_level	Orange
alert_score	2
title	Orange forest fire notification in Portugal
country	Portugal
from_date	Thu, 02 Jul 2026 00:00:00 GMT
to_date	Wed, 08 Jul 2026 00:00:00 GMT

Historical monthly context — not current conditionsAs of: 2026-07 · Disruption index: 49.01 · 0 months older than this event

How this was detected

Rule: gdacs_alert_level

Method: deterministic-rule

Thresholds

gdacs_alert_severity

{"Orange":"warning","Red":"severe"}

Observed

event_id	1029260
event_type	WF
alert_level	Orange
alert_score	2
title	Orange forest fire notification in Portugal
country	Portugal
from_date	Thu, 02 Jul 2026 00:00:00 GMT
to_date	Wed, 08 Jul 2026 00:00:00 GMT

Baseline

n_points	—
window_hours	—
mean	—
std	—

Insufficient baseline — absolute threshold only.

Sources

GDACS Live Alerts snapshotcollected: 2026-07-12T00:00:51.613701+00:00

Corroborating evidence

Independent live sources scanned for disruption-significant entries about this country. Only strict, disclosed rules count — routine entries are never counted.

france-diplomatie-travel1 matching entriesSnapshot
Rule: count France Diplomatie 'dernières minutes' alerts for the event country ONLY when the alert's classified phenomenon aligns with the event type (a flood alert does not corroborate a seismic event); the feed only lists active alerts
- Canicule et incendie — portugal
viaggia-sicuri-it1 matching entriesSnapshot
Rule: count Viaggiare Sicuri 'ultimi avvisi' entries for the event country ONLY when the item's classified phenomenon (from its free-text title/excerpt) can corroborate the event type — a rail-strike or protest notice does not corroborate a seismic event; the feed only lists destinations with an active alert
- PORTOGALLO: allerta meteo. — Le recenti condizioni meteorologiche estreme stanno interessando molte zone del Portogallo: si raccomanda di attenersi scrupolosamente alle indicazioni delle Autorità loca

Sources scanned: auswaertiges-amt-api-de, emsc-seismic, france-diplomatie-travel, mae-ro-travel, meteoalarm-eumetnet, minbuza-nl-travel, uk-fcdo-advisories, us-state-advisories, viaggia-sicuri-it

Estimates

Estimates are labeled model outputs derived from published historical artifacts — they are context, not forecasts.

Estimate unavailable — not enough historical data for this event type.

For AI agents

Machine-readable JSON for this page:

/data/api/v1/events/ev-disaster-alert-pt-20260706-717257.json

Add as an MCP server (from the repo root):

claude mcp add travel-trends -- .venv/bin/python -m etl.mcp_server

API documentation→