WatchEnded

Airspace and airport closure NOTAM spike in Spain

🇪🇸 Spain

Onset: 2026-07-08 · First detected: 2026-07-08T18:00:48.806738+00:00 · Last observed: 2026-07-11T00:00:48.609380+00:00 · Ended: 2026-07-11T12:00:52.146310+00:00

Generated at: 2026-07-12T00:00:51.613701+00:00 · The radar runs every 6 hours; data may lag by up to 6 hours.

Plain-language brief

What happened, who is affected, what similar past episodes looked like and what to do — every number links to its source.

What happened

ObservedOn 2026-07-08, our automated monitoring flagged a aviation disruption in Spain — rated watch — the lowest of our three alert levels.[Enaire NOTAM Spain]
ObservedThe reading behind this alert: active notams at 1538 (the full technical detail is in the sections below).[Enaire NOTAM Spain]

Who is affected

ObservedHotels, travel managers, OTAs and tour operators with guests in Spain during the event window are the most directly affected, together with travellers holding bookings there.[Enaire NOTAM Spain]

What similar past episodes looked like

ObservedWe are not attaching a historical impact estimate here: our analogues are national, month-long patterns, and this is a localised, point-in-time event in Spain — a country-wide number would not describe it.[estimates.applicability_reason]

What to do now

RecommendationFor now, keep an eye on the situation in Spain; no change to bookings is needed yet.[detection.observed]

Impact

closures	73
area_activations	448
significant_notams	521
active_notams	1538

Historical monthly context — not current conditionsAs of: 2026-06 · Disruption index: 42.44 · 1 months older than this event

How this was detected

Rule: notam_closure_spike

Method: deterministic-rule

Thresholds

closure_qcodes	["FALC","FALT","MPLC","MRLC","MRLT","MXLC"]
area_activation_qcodes	["RACA","RDCA","RRCA","RTCA"]
exclude_permanent	true
baseline_metric	significant_notams
abs_min_significant	750
severe_count	1100
z_min	2
z_floor	150

Observed

closures	73
area_activations	448
significant_notams	521
active_notams	1538

Baseline

n_points	47
window_hours	601.62
mean	387.21
std	60.40

Sources

Enaire NOTAM Spain snapshotcollected: 2026-07-11T00:00:48.609380+00:00

Corroborating evidence

Independent live sources scanned for disruption-significant entries about this country. Only strict, disclosed rules count — routine entries are never counted.

meteoalarm-eumetnet1 matching entriesSnapshot
Rule: count the event country's Meteoalarm entry only when its max severity is Severe or Extreme with at least one active warning; Moderate/minor warning loads are routine
- ES — 221 — Severe
viaggia-sicuri-it1 matching entriesSnapshot
Rule: count Viaggiare Sicuri 'ultimi avvisi' entries for the event country ONLY when the item's classified phenomenon (from its free-text title/excerpt) can corroborate the event type — a rail-strike or protest notice does not corroborate a seismic event; the feed only lists destinations with an active alert
- SPAGNA: allerta meteo. — Le recenti condizioni meteorologiche estreme stanno interessando molte zone della Spagna: si raccomanda di attenersi scrupolosamente alle indicazioni delle Autorità locali ( h

Sources scanned: auswaertiges-amt-api-de, dgt-open-data-es, emsc-seismic, france-diplomatie-travel, gdacs-live, mae-ro-travel, meteoalarm-eumetnet, minbuza-nl-travel, renfe-open-data-es, uk-fcdo-advisories, us-state-advisories, viaggia-sicuri-it

Estimates

Estimates are labeled model outputs derived from published historical artifacts — they are context, not forecasts.

Estimate unavailable — not enough historical data for this event type.

Recommendations

Monitor the situation in Spain and re-check this report before confirming new bookings.
based on: detection.observed

For AI agents

Machine-readable JSON for this page:

/data/api/v1/events/ev-notam-closure-spike-es-20260708-81dcbf.json

Add as an MCP server (from the repo root):

claude mcp add travel-trends -- .venv/bin/python -m etl.mcp_server

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