WatchEnded

Seismic activity in Italy

🇮🇹 Italy

Onset: 2026-08-01 · First detected: 2026-08-01T00:01:16.119083+00:00 · Last observed: 2026-08-02T06:01:27.553486+00:00 · Ended: 2026-08-02T18:01:19.804807+00:00

Generated at: 2026-08-23T18:01:11.880422+00:00 · The radar runs every 6 hours; data may lag by up to 6 hours.

Plain-language brief

What happened, who is affected, what similar past episodes looked like and what to do — every number links to its source.

What happened

ObservedOn 2026-08-01, our automated monitoring flagged a disaster disruption in Italy — rated watch — the lowest of our three alert levels.[EMSC Seismic Portal]
ObservedThe reading behind this alert: max mag at 4.7 (the full technical detail is in the sections below).[EMSC Seismic Portal]

Who is affected

ObservedHotels, travel managers, OTAs and tour operators with guests in Italy during the event window are the most directly affected, together with travellers holding bookings there.[EMSC Seismic Portal]

What similar past episodes looked like

ObservedWe are not attaching a historical impact estimate here: our analogues are national, month-long patterns, and this is a localised, point-in-time event in Italy — a country-wide number would not describe it.[estimates.applicability_reason]

What to do now

RecommendationFollow the official sources linked in this report for Italy and reassess bookings before making changes.[EMSC Seismic Portal]

Impact

qualifying_events	[{"unid":"20260731_0000254","time":"2026-07-31T17:46:43.35Z","mag":4.7,"magtype":"ml","depth_km":9.8,"lat":40.8309,"lon":14.1539,"flynn_region":"SOUTHERN ITALY"}]
n_qualifying	1
n_excluded_deep_focus	0
max_mag	4.70

Historical monthly context — not current conditionsAs of: 2026-07 · Disruption index: 56.03 · 1 months older than this event

How this was detected

Rule: seismic_magnitude_threshold

Method: deterministic-rule

Thresholds

watch_mag	4.50
warning_mag	5.50
severe_mag	6
exclude_depth_km	300
max_events_in_evidence	5

Observed

qualifying_events	[{"unid":"20260731_0000254","time":"2026-07-31T17:46:43.35Z","mag":4.7,"magtype":"ml","depth_km":9.8,"lat":40.8309,"lon":14.1539,"flynn_region":"SOUTHERN ITALY"}]
n_qualifying	1
n_excluded_deep_focus	0
max_mag	4.70

Baseline

n_points	—
window_hours	—
mean	—
std	—

Insufficient baseline — absolute threshold only.

Sources

EMSC Seismic Portal snapshotcollected: 2026-08-02T06:01:27.553486+00:00

Corroborating evidence

Independent live sources scanned for disruption-significant entries about this country. Only strict, disclosed rules count — routine entries are never counted.

No corroborating entries found in the sources scanned.

Sources scanned: auswaertiges-amt-api-de, autostrade-italia, france-diplomatie-travel, gdacs-live, mae-ro-travel, meteoalarm-eumetnet, minbuza-nl-travel, trenitalia-open-data-it, uk-fcdo-advisories, viaggia-sicuri-it

Estimates

Estimates are labeled model outputs derived from published historical artifacts — they are context, not forecasts.

Estimate unavailable — not enough historical data for this event type.

For AI agents

Machine-readable JSON for this page:

/data/api/v1/events/ev-seismic-event-it-20260801-137aeb.json

Add as an MCP server (from the repo root):

claude mcp add travel-trends -- .venv/bin/python -m etl.mcp_server

API documentation→