WatchEnded

Travel advisory change for Bulgaria

🇧🇬 Bulgaria

Onset: 2026-10-21 · First detected: 2026-10-21T12:00:47.318705+00:00 · Last observed: 2026-10-21T12:00:47.318705+00:00 · Ended: 2026-10-22T00:00:50.681877+00:00

Generated at: 2026-10-23T12:01:48.129593+00:00 · The radar runs every 6 hours; data may lag by up to 6 hours.

Plain-language brief

What happened, who is affected, what similar past episodes looked like and what to do — every number links to its source.

What happened

ObservedOn 2026-10-21, a government travel advisory covering Bulgaria changed — rated watch — the lowest of our three alert levels.[Viaggia Sicuri Italy]
ObservedThe reading behind this alert: magnitude at 1 (the full technical detail is in the sections below).[Viaggia Sicuri Italy]

Who is affected

ObservedHotels, travel managers, OTAs and tour operators with guests in Bulgaria during the event window are the most directly affected, together with travellers holding bookings there.[Viaggia Sicuri Italy]

What similar past episodes looked like

Historical associationIn similar past high-disruption months, overnight stays in Bulgaria averaged 48.8% below normal calm-month levels — a historical association from our published research panel, not a prediction.[estimates.historical_correlation]
Historical associationLooking at the 3 most similar months in our 2014-2026 research panel, overnight stays one month later differed from a year earlier by a median of +12.5% — again a historical association, not a prediction of this event.[estimates.analogues]

What to do now

RecommendationFor now, keep an eye on the situation in Bulgaria; no change to bookings is needed yet.[detection.observed]

Impact

magnitude

Historical monthly context — not current conditionsAs of: 2026-10 · Disruption index: 8.82 · 0 months older than this event

How this was detected

Rule: advisory_new_alert

Method: deterministic-rule

Thresholds

rule_basis

set difference vs previously recorded eu27_codes

Observed

Sources

Viaggia Sicuri Italy snapshotcollected: 2026-10-21T12:00:47.318705+00:00

Corroborating evidence

Independent live sources scanned for disruption-significant entries about this country. Only strict, disclosed rules count — routine entries are never counted.

No corroborating entries found in the sources scanned.

Sources scanned: auswaertiges-amt-api-de, emsc-seismic, france-diplomatie-travel, gdacs-live, mae-ro-travel, meteoalarm-eumetnet, minbuza-nl-travel, uk-fcdo-advisories, us-state-advisories

Estimates

Estimates are labeled model outputs derived from published historical artifacts — they are context, not forecasts.

Model output — historical correlation estimatehistorical-correlation

r_nights	0.06
r_arrivals	0.01
best_lag_months	2
best_lag_r	0.19
baseline_deviation_pct	-48.76
n_months	118

Caveats:

correlation is association, not causation
baseline_deviation_pct is the observed average nights deviation during historical high-disruption months (index > 50) vs calm months
coefficients are dominated by the 2020-2021 pandemic period and may overstate the impact of smaller disruptions
computed on monthly national aggregates; sub-national and short-lived events are diluted

Observed history — analogue episodes, not a predictionanalogue-episodesindex_equiv = 25

Episode	score	index	h0	h1	h2	h3
🇫🇷 France · 2026-07	1.443	93.33	2.97	—	—	—
🇫🇷 France · 2016-07	1.364	81.18	-1.78	-1.98	-1.28	-9.14
🇪🇸 Spain · 2022-07	1.358	86.89	51.04	26.92	35.19	21.88

median_h1	12.47
median_h2	16.95
median_h3	6.37

Caveats:

analogues are historically similar months, not a forecast of this event
similarity is computed on a 10-feature panel embedding (tourism volumes, disruption/stringency indices, seasonality); it ignores event semantics
the index_equiv mapping from severity to disruption-index points is a disclosed modelling assumption, not an observation
observed_nights_yoy_pct mixes the event effect with everything else that happened in those months

Recommendations

Monitor the situation in Bulgaria and re-check this report before confirming new bookings.
based on: detection.observed

For AI agents

Machine-readable JSON for this page:

/data/api/v1/events/ev-advisory-change-bg-20261021-297eb2.json

Add as an MCP server (from the repo root):

claude mcp add travel-trends -- .venv/bin/python -m etl.mcp_server

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