InfoEnded

Travel advisory change for Bulgaria

🇧🇬 Bulgaria

Onset: 2026-11-01 · First detected: 2026-11-01T18:01:47.457125+00:00 · Last observed: 2026-11-01T18:01:47.457125+00:00 · Ended: 2026-11-02T06:01:45.320891+00:00

Generated at: 2026-11-02T12:21:11.337831+00:00 · The radar runs every 6 hours; data may lag by up to 6 hours.

Plain-language brief

What happened, who is affected, what similar past episodes looked like and what to do — every number links to its source.

What happened

ObservedOn 2026-11-01, a government travel advisory covering Bulgaria changed — rated informational — below our three alert levels.[Viaggia Sicuri Italy]
ObservedThe reading behind this alert: magnitude at 0 (the full technical detail is in the sections below).[Viaggia Sicuri Italy]

Who is affected

ObservedHotels, travel managers, OTAs and tour operators with guests in Bulgaria during the event window are the most directly affected, together with travellers holding bookings there.[Viaggia Sicuri Italy]

What similar past episodes looked like

Historical associationIn similar past high-disruption months, overnight stays in Bulgaria averaged 48.8% below normal calm-month levels — a historical association from our published research panel, not a prediction.[estimates.historical_correlation]

What to do now

RecommendationFollow the official sources linked in this report for Bulgaria and reassess bookings before making changes.[Viaggia Sicuri Italy]

Impact

magnitude

Historical monthly context — not current conditionsAs of: 2026-11 · Disruption index: 11.76 · 0 months older than this event

How this was detected

Rule: advisory_new_alert

Method: deterministic-rule

Thresholds

rule_basis

set difference vs previously recorded eu27_codes

Observed

Sources

Viaggia Sicuri Italy snapshotcollected: 2026-11-01T18:01:47.457125+00:00

Corroborating evidence

Independent live sources scanned for disruption-significant entries about this country. Only strict, disclosed rules count — routine entries are never counted.

mae-ro-travel1 matching entriesSnapshot
Rule: count Romanian MAE travel-alert items naming the event country ONLY when the item's classified phenomenon (from its free-text Romanian title) can corroborate the event type — a national rail-strike notice ('Grevă ... feroviar') corroborates a rail event, never a seismic event (EU-27 rows only; the feed only lists destinations with an active alert)
- Republica Turcia - Protest spontan al transportatorilor de marfă turci în proximitatea punctelor de trecere a frontierei rutiere dintre Republica Turcia și Republica Bulgaria
meteoalarm-eumetnet1 matching entriesSnapshot
Rule: count the event country's Meteoalarm entry only when its max severity is Severe or Extreme with at least one active warning; Moderate/minor warning loads are routine
- BG — 70 — Extreme

Sources scanned: auswaertiges-amt-api-de, emsc-seismic, france-diplomatie-travel, gdacs-live, mae-ro-travel, meteoalarm-eumetnet, minbuza-nl-travel, uk-fcdo-advisories, us-state-advisories

Estimates

Estimates are labeled model outputs derived from published historical artifacts — they are context, not forecasts.

Model output — historical correlation estimatehistorical-correlation

r_nights	0.07
r_arrivals	0.03
best_lag_months	2
best_lag_r	0.20
baseline_deviation_pct	-48.76
n_months	119

Caveats:

correlation is association, not causation
baseline_deviation_pct is the observed average nights deviation during historical high-disruption months (index > 50) vs calm months
coefficients are dominated by the 2020-2021 pandemic period and may overstate the impact of smaller disruptions
computed on monthly national aggregates; sub-national and short-lived events are diluted

Estimate unavailable — not enough historical data for this event type.

For AI agents

Machine-readable JSON for this page:

/data/api/v1/events/ev-advisory-change-bg-20261101-b755b1.json

Add as an MCP server (from the repo root):

claude mcp add travel-trends -- .venv/bin/python -m etl.mcp_server

API documentation →