SevereActive

Disruption index anomaly in Poland

🇵🇱 Poland

Onset: 2026-10 · First detected: 2026-10-12T12:19:22.151444+00:00 · Last observed: 2026-10-12T12:19:22.151444+00:00

Generated at: 2026-10-12T12:19:22.151444+00:00 · The radar runs every 6 hours; data may lag by up to 6 hours.

Plain-language brief

What happened, who is affected, what similar past episodes looked like and what to do — every number links to its source.

What happened

ObservedIn 2026-10, the combined disruption picture for Poland moved well outside its usual range — rated severe — the highest of our three alert levels.[Composite Disruption Index (monthly methodology)]
ObservedThe reading behind this alert: index at 50.5 (the full technical detail is in the sections below).[Composite Disruption Index (monthly methodology)]

Who is affected

ObservedHotels, travel managers, OTAs and tour operators with guests in Poland during the event window are the most directly affected, together with travellers holding bookings there.[Composite Disruption Index (monthly methodology)]

What similar past episodes looked like

Historical associationIn similar past high-disruption months, overnight stays in Poland averaged 46.5% below normal calm-month levels — a historical association from our published research panel, not a prediction.[estimates.historical_correlation]
Historical associationLooking at the 3 most similar months in our 2014-2026 research panel, overnight stays one month later differed from a year earlier by a median of -0.4% — again a historical association, not a prediction of this event.[estimates.analogues]

What to do now

RecommendationFor now, keep an eye on the situation in Poland; no change to bookings is needed yet.[detection.observed]
RecommendationLet affected Poland bookings move to new dates without penalty while the disruption lasts.[detection.observed][estimates.historical_correlation]

Impact

index	50.55
components	{"aviation":0,"disaster":0,"health":0,"rail":null,"weather":68.75}

Historical monthly context — not current conditionsAs of: 2026-10 · Disruption index: 50.55 · 0 months older than this event

How this was detected

Rule: monthly_index_anomaly

Method: deterministic-rule

Thresholds

index_watch	25
index_severe	50
z_min	2
z_floor_index	10

Observed

month	2026-10
disruption_index	50.55
components	{"aviation":0,"disaster":0,"health":0,"rail":null,"weather":68.75}

Baseline

n_points	142
window_hours	—
mean	22.42
std	22.32

Insufficient baseline — absolute threshold only.

Sources

Composite Disruption Index (monthly methodology)snapshotcollected: 2026-10-12

Corroborating evidence

Corroboration not applicable: live snapshots describe current conditions, not the period of this event.

Estimates

Estimates are labeled model outputs derived from published historical artifacts — they are context, not forecasts.

Model output — historical correlation estimatehistorical-correlation

r_nights	-0.05
r_arrivals	-0.19
best_lag_months	6
best_lag_r	-0.29
baseline_deviation_pct	-46.54
n_months	139

Caveats:

correlation is association, not causation
baseline_deviation_pct is the observed average nights deviation during historical high-disruption months (index > 50) vs calm months
coefficients are dominated by the 2020-2021 pandemic period and may overstate the impact of smaller disruptions
computed on monthly national aggregates; sub-national and short-lived events are diluted

Observed history — analogue episodes, not a predictionanalogue-episodesindex_equiv = 60

Episode	score	index	h0	h1	h2	h3
🇫🇷 France · 2026-07	1.944	93.33	2.97	—	—	—
🇫🇷 France · 2025-07	1.837	87.11	5.56	1.18	1.93	4.24
🇫🇷 France · 2016-07	1.819	81.18	-1.78	-1.98	-1.28	-9.14

median_h1	-0.40
median_h2	0.32
median_h3	-2.45

Caveats:

analogues are historically similar months, not a forecast of this event
similarity is computed on a 10-feature panel embedding (tourism volumes, disruption/stringency indices, seasonality); it ignores event semantics
the index_equiv mapping from severity to disruption-index points is a disclosed modelling assumption, not an observation
observed_nights_yoy_pct mixes the event effect with everything else that happened in those months

Recommendations

Monitor the situation in Poland and re-check this report before confirming new bookings.
based on: detection.observed
Enable flexible rebooking for trips to Poland departing within {days} days.
based on: detection.observed, estimates.historical_correlation

For AI agents

Machine-readable JSON for this page:

/data/api/v1/events/ev-monthly-anomaly-pl-20261001-2ce0fc.json

Add as an MCP server (from the repo root):

claude mcp add travel-trends -- .venv/bin/python -m etl.mcp_server

API documentation→